Olympiacos Preview, And Financial Review
Sep 28th, 2009 by 'holic
A lot of things are happening for a Monday, so without too much preamble it is time to preview the visit of Olympiacos for Champions League matchday two.
The Greeks have a mixed record in the competition. Just last season they failed to make it past the qualifying rounds, and yet that followed a remarkable performance just a year earlier when they had qualified from a group that included Real Madrid, Lazio, and Werder Bremen, only to lose to Chelsea.
They have been champions for twelve of the last thirteen seasons in Greece, and for an indication of why you need look no further than this season. They have won four and drawn one, and after the draw parted company with head coach Temuri Ketsbaia, the former Newcastle player, and replaced him with the Brazilian legend, Zico. Domestic failure is unthinkable.
However, their expectations in Europe are more realistic. A quick trawl around some of their fansites reveals an almost universal concern that they could be beaten heavily at the Grove. That natural pessimism is more a result of Greek clubs traditionally travelling badly than a despondency about their sides chances in the competition as a whole. As both Lazio and Bremen discovered two years ago, they are not completely impotent on the road.
If everybody is fit the visitors could include familiar faces in the shape of Olof Mellburg (Villa), Matt Derbyshire (Blackburn), and Raul Bravo (Leeds). Arsenal, we already know, will once again feature Vito Mannone in goal, but will be missing Nicklas Bendtner after the Dane swerved off the road, presumably having seen his latest contract offer.
The news also broke that Denilson is ruled out for two months with a fracture to his back received against Manchester City. The fallout from that game continues to irritate. All of which means that there may not be too many changes from the side that won at Fulham. Eboue is favourite to replace Bendtner on the right, but I suspect that Tomas Rosicky will be playing the final half an hour on one flank or the other.
The ‘holic pound has to be guided by the fears of the visitors. I’m looking at 4-1 to the Arsenal and seeing odds of sixteens with Paddy Power. That looks good to me. I’m tempted by a little back-up wager on Tomas Rosicky to score at any time, 4/1 with Stan James.
Financial Results Announced
If the ‘holic pound doesn’t hold your interest, and I couldn’t blame you for that, the latest figures announced by Arsenal Holdings PLC probably will. The full report, at 23 pages long, will take some studying later on, but I will comment briefly on the ‘highlights’.
These numbers cover the year to the end of May. That means that the income from transfers during this past close season is not included in the numbers, and is reported to be available to the manager for ‘transfers and wages’. That is the sort of statement that has to leak out at this stage, but it remains to be seen if that cash is retained in the business for the possible financing of developments at Queensland Road.
The most significant statements concern the Highbury Square development, which had threatened to be a considerable burden at times in this past year. The ‘debt’ still associated with that project is considerably reduced, at £47 million, and has been successfully renegotiated to be cleared by the end of 2010.
That should be more than covered by the sales of the remaining units. Close on a third of the 655 apartments have yet to be completed, but given that the first 445 have brought in over £172 million one can simply calculate a surplus to the business, possibly of between thirty and forty million pounds, should accrue by the time of the final loan repayment.
In brief then, one half of the property arm could cease to be a distraction in little more than a year. The importance of this comes in a brief comment on net debt.
‘mainly as a result of loan repayments on our Highbury Square facility, the Group’s overall net debt has decreased from £318.1 million to £297.7 million’
Most of the net debt relates to the finance of the stadium, albeit at favourable terms. As the economic outlook improves a huge decision relating to Queensland Road needs to be made. I’m sure the board will be weighing up the need for finance to accomplish the developments for which planning permission is already in place, against the potential cash gains from a sale of the site to a third party. The loosening of the purse strings for strengthening the playing squad are likely to be determined by these decisions. As much is acknowledged in the report.
‘conditions remain very tough and uncertain for our property business and this will likely continue to impact both of our main property development projects over the next year’.
In other words, we ain’t quite there yet! Don’t get your hopes up too early.
15 Responses to “Olympiacos Preview, And Financial Review”
My favourite line-up for Olympiakos…
Mannone
Sagna, Willy, Vermeh, Clichy
Cesc, Song, Sicky Diaby
Arshy
van Persie, Eddy
4-0 easy.
‘holic! Your site and Arseblog’s are the ONLY places to get what I call ‘real’ news about the Gunners at present. And the humour! Wgere else could you get the dry shit you two turn out?!?!
There is so much negativity going around so many of the blogs that I don’t even read them any more, e.g. ANR.
I would like to take this opportunity to thank you for your previews, views and reviews. They make interesting reading, and other blogs might take note of the real way to present information; not just jump on the negative bandwagon.
Thanks ‘holic, you old B. (I’m 56, so I suppose I’m an old B as well!)
Best wishes from Thailand (ex-Poole, Dorset)
Love you, man.
I do not know what is wrong with some arsenal fans e.g those on 606. They just do not understand. they criticise every small thing about Arsenal. Why do not go and support another club. If they do not want Mr. Wenger let them get a Benitez. Why?????????????. Whether Arsenal win or not win they are the same. What kind of support is that. It amazes me. By the way Iam not english speaking.
I love the fact that someone who calls himself thaiDeviant thinks I have a sense of humour!
Brilliant. Thanks for dropping by. 🙂
I do like Renan’s 4-4-3 formation 😉
Heh,
Good spot Darren. I like it myself, now. 🙂
…although I suspect Sicky Diaby is one player and not two. Strange though, I’ll grant you.
The French have a longstanding hoodoo on Brazil in football — France haven’t lost to Brazil since 1958. That hoodoo seemed to extend to managers last season at Stamford Bridge when Wenger beat Scolari. I expect it to work tomorrow against Zico. He’s a decent manager, had good records in Turkey and the Middle East. But he’s naive against top European clubs. I just hope we don’t humiliate him, wonderful player and a good guy off the pitch too.
Well spotted Marcus 😉
Isn’t it a good time for some young legs on the pitch?
Sagna-Senderos-Vermaelen-Gibbs
Song
Cesc-Rambo
Arshavin
VP-Vela
Many thanks for the insight on our finances. We should be in a very good (read financially competitive) situation within 2-3 years. I have a question though: how much is Queensland Road worth?
Note that the financial situation is even better since today: London & Stamford Property Limited (“London & Stamford”) today (09/28) announces that it has completed the acquisition of a block of apartments predominantly in the North Stand, The Stadium, Highbury Square, N5 from Highbury Holdings Limited. The acquisition also includes a number of car parking spaces. London & Stamford is acquiring a long leasehold interest in the apartments and the car parking spaces for £41.4m. London & Stamford has equity funded the acquisition and will look to raise debt against the purchase in due course. From: http://www.londonandstamford.com/media_centre/rns/?id=6237
Hello Matt.
I’m afraid there is no simple answer to your question about Queensland Road. At this stage we cannot be sure a) if Arsenal will develop it themselves, in which case the how much will be determined by market values when the properties are sold off. Or b) Arsenal could decide to hang on to the freehold and let developers take on the next phase for a fixed return. Or c) A combination of the first two with some of the properties sold up front to a body like a housing development organisation and a shared venture with developers on a portion of the new development. In fact the options are manifold and more complex than that, but these essentially are the three main options.
Had you asked the same question about the Highbury Square development four years ago you would have been told that we expect to have a profit of nine figures by the end of 2009. The point being, nobody really knows, hence why the decisions coming up are so critical to the football side of the business. Ringfenced does not mean ‘has no effect on’.
Thanks ‘Holic. I understand it would be a wild guess at this stage.
And totally agree on the dubious meaning of ringfenced. We seem pretty eager to be done with the Highbury Square flats to the point of selling them under their current value: £47.1m instead £58.8m (£400 / square foot instead of £500). That leaves us out of debt (on the ringfenced part of the business) and with a small profit from the reaming flats in our possession. I guess the £10+m difference will be partly covered by reimbursing earlier the “emergency” short-term loan.
So that leaves us with around £300m in debt, a few 10m’s of potential profit from the remaining flats, whatever much we can make from Queensland Road and a few coins in the piggy bank. The good news is that whatever pressure from the low sales of the Highbury flats vs the repayment deadline is gone and Arsene will have some cash available but as long as the club hasn’t cashed out on Queensland Road, the interests payments will remain high enough to prevent us from competing with the biggest clubs.
On the other hand if the club decided to develop Queensland Road, we would have to be patient one more time until the last flat there has been sold. But then we would be one of the clubs with the most money available. On the pitch this time.
BTW here’s the club’s official take on Queensland Road at the time of the permit (last March):
“The plans for Queensland Road, which is located right next to Emirates Stadium, at the south end of the site, include over 700 new homes, 50% of which will be affordable rented accommodation.
The plans also include an Arsenal Sports Centre, which will support and provide a venue for Arsenal’s many educational and social inclusion community programmes.”
If you look at the pictures you’ll se it may take a while before this is finished: http://www.flickr.com/photos/33232053@N03/3329808953/in/set-72157614828115764/
Looks like we may see more of our young players in the 2-3 years to come before we can afford the next Ronaldo…
I had the pleasure of seeing Lewis Hamilton secure pole on Saturday night just before we kicked off at Fulham, so it was pints in a Singapore bar with Mika Hakkinen (turns out Lewis is a red hot Gooner and Mika goes with the flow). Just back and have just enjoyed your post on the Fulham game and your preview for Wednesday, ‘Holic. I’ve said it before. You do great work.
I was on the edge of my seat for most of the time at Fulham. While I thought we were largely in control, it wouldn’t have surprised me to have seen an equaliser and unnecessary loss of two points. That we didn’t, as you rightly observed, was to Vito’s credit. I don’t think he’s anywhere close to the finished article, but we do have three great young keepers on the books.
Diaby and AA contributed little on Saturday I thought. I was surprised that Rosicky and Eboue (or Ramsey) didn’t appear earlier. Good outcome though and we shouldn’t forget that this was essentially the same Fulham team that took the scalps of three of the “big four” at the Cottage last year.
The news on Denilson concerns me more than the finances (although you and Matt have summarised the latter nicely. Thanks!). I think Denilson is becoming a pivotal part of the team. When he isn’t there, we tick but don’t tock and miss his defensive work in front of the back four. Speedy, speedy return, young man.
Why are people complaining about AA playing on the left side of the front three, where else should he play? One moment people are saying change the formation, the next they are accusing the manager of marginalizing players. AA cannot play as the middle man because he is small and would never win a header there(maybe a little exaggerated), basically this is not his position. He is worse on the right because he would have to constantly cut in; I believe that his right foot is stronger than the left: watch all the goals he has scored last season. He cannot play in midfield because he goes missing during large chunks of the games….you cannot have a number 10 in a 4-3-3 per Se. So his most natural position in this formation is on the left of the front three. It is up to him to work hard and help the team from this position. If you doubt me, ask TH14 on his two seasons at Barcelona. I apologize for putting these comment here, even though the complaint about AA
may not have been made on this platform
Perhaps Platform 2 at Waterloo then?
I’ll have a pint of monkey shoulder pls ‘holic.