If Not A Must Win This Is Certainly A Must Not Lose
Jan 18th, 2019 by 'holic
It feels as though we are reaching a make or break point in our Premier League season with the Saturday evening visit of Chelsea. Put simply if the gap between us and the club currently occupying fourth place in the table grows to nine points tomorrow we are likely to be overtaken by Manchester United and unlikely to return to the Champions League via this route.
Those of you who are on social media will know I had the good fortune to witness some of our preparation for Saturday at Shenley yesterday. (Thank you Lucy, Will, and all connected with The Arsenal Foundation for that.) I cannot go into too much detail but as general observations what stood out was the atmosphere in the squad. We witnessed tremendous camaraderie among the players.
Most notable was the respect afforded to Mesut Ozil. As he arrived for breakfast the players already present paid homage to him and chanted “Mesut, Mesut, Mesut” which he acknowledged with a smile. He played a full part in training and there was communication between Unai Emery and our most creative force.
I have said before that I don’t believe his problems are physical and if you haven’t yet listened to this week’s excellent Arsecast then I heartily recommend that you do. Arseblog and the likeable Philippe Auclair have a pretty comprehensive chat about what potentially ails the club this month and beyond. I am indebted to the latter for putting out this link which may hint at an explanation for what is going on in Mesut’s world right now.
I am persuaded that he has a chance of being involved tomorrow, although few would be surprised if he isn’t. Evidently he is fit and held in good stead by his colleagues. We go into this match on the back of a lunchtime to forget at West Ham where we were denied the creativity of our most talented and incisive passer. I suspect his involvement from the kick-off is unlikely, particularly if we persist with a back three which isn’t working and denies us the opportunity to play a conventional number ten.
It is perhaps time to revert to a 4-2-3-1 this weekend? Hector Bellerin and Nacho Monreal are our best full-backs and should start in front of Bernd Leno or Petr Cech. Sokratis Papastathopoulos is the first central defender on the team sheet right now. Laurent Koscielny appears to be a little less than one hundred percent which is not surprising given the horror injury he is coming back from. That means trusting in Skhodran Mustafi to return to the player who forced himself into the German national side.
I am but an opinionated blogger (aren’t we all) but would change the pairing in front of the back four. Lucas Torreira needs to return as he is our metrognome making sure we are ticking at our best. Alongside him I think it is time to take Granit Xhaka and Matteo Guendouzi out of the firing line and trust Ainsley Maitland-Niles to do a job many think will become his in future.
With a back four we can pick a number ten. For me it should be Mesut, or even Aaron Ramsey, but Alex Iwobi appears to have Unai Emery’s trust right now and he may well get the job. Ramsey might then play on the right, cutting in to provide a goal threat, and Pierre-Emerick Aubamayang on the left but with a similar remit to cut in and go for goal. His relationship with Alexandre Lacazette is amazing to witness at first hand. They are inseparable, jokers both, and now is the time to have these remarkable goalscorers on the pitch at the same time more regularly.
The ‘holic pound
This is what was once regularly described as a six-pointer. Chelsea’s hold over us in the years following the move to The Grove has weakened in recent years. It’s no longer a given that they roll us over as a result of Drogba and Costa bullying defenders. Morata appears to be bound for Atletico and Higuain isn’t likely to be a starter even if his move is confirmed later. That means Hazard or Olivier Giroud will be the main man up front. Both will need some watching.
I’m hoping with a strengthened midfield we will be able to fashion the chances that Auba and Laca need to feast on. I’m not predicting a dramatic improvement defensively so I have to return to the pursuit of the 3-2 home win, available at 28/1. This of course will be delivered by Mesut coming off the bench to transform us in the second-half!
That’s enough for now. Obviously I will be at the match so don’t expect a report until my hangover is bearable on Sunday morning. Next week I hope to put together a piece about the much developed performance management and fitness regime at the club having also enjoyed a couple of chats with Shad Forsythe and Darren Burgess yesterday.
Have a good one, ‘holics.
70 Responses to “If Not A Must Win This Is Certainly A Must Not Lose”
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My hearts desire for tomorrow, quite simple:
3 points however they come and and at least one gallon of ale.
Confident of at least one of those being delivered…..
UTA :COOL:
Come and have a proper pint before the match Dr Z. ??
One?
The horror……
One from me. Lars can buy the other seven, as usual. ?
Holic
Glad you enjoyed the day yesterday. I look forward to reading your piece. The club need to get on the front foot to restore the faith of their fans. A good win tomorrow would be a terrific tonic going into the game with United. I’m expecting a 1-1 draw but I felt the same way last year when we beat them in the Carabao semi final.
I would play Ramsey deeper and bring back Mesut who I sense will rise to the occasion. I would pair Kos and Sokratis, I wouldn’t have Mustafi near the team although he might handle Giroud. I think they will play Hazard upfront as their spearhead .
Whatever I hope we can reverse the negativity recent performances have generated
Hello TTG, I hope some of the things I saw in training yesterday come to fruition. It is unusual for the general public to be allowed access to the whole session, and I will not share what I saw. Let me say one thing to correct a misapprehension held by many.
We do work on defensive situations.
You are terribly coy, Guv’nor. However, I commend you for your @46 in the previous drinks: a microcosm of why this is the best blog in the Arseiverse.
I have a sneaking suspicion that TTG will be proved right in predicting a draw. Three points would lift the mood immeasurably, however, not to mention close a gap that, as you rightly note, is at risk of widening to an unbridgeable degree.
Thanks Ned. I saw stuff yesterday that outsiders don’t normally see and if I shared it, particularly before the match, I would not be welcomed back. I was present for Unai’s presser, which was never an option other than for FA Cup Finals in Arsene’s reign, privileges both.
I have to be bullish about us every preview, but the bookies make Chelsea favourite in the win markets, and a 1-1 draw is favourite in the correct score markets.
I have seen us perform well and win games we weren’t expected to in recent years, particularly against Chelsea. It is in my nature to be optimistic. Why not? I will be deeply gutted if it doesn’t happen either way, but let me deal with that then.
If we didn’t believe we’ll win every game, we wouldn’t be fans but merely spectators.
From previous – don’t care that he doesn’t coach them, he’s the boss and he should get his priorities in order.
Of course, if he was watching a decent sport it might not sting so much, but glorified netball?
Shit, if he WAS watching netball it would be preferable to that other nonsense.
I saw stuff yesterday that outsiders don’t normally see
Emery’s “FUCK YOU, MESUT OZIL!” t-shirt, for example 🙂
Thanks for the preview Guvnor.
Lots of interesting stuff to think
about this Saturday morning in
Osaka.
Last drinks……
@40 Cynic
hohoho 🙂
TTG,
Agree with you on Mavropanos- it’s
time to get a good look at him. Rob
has shown he is worth persevering
with next season and it’d be great
if Mavro was too. I think Kos will
leave and I hope we sell Mus and
Calum, but also like some continuity
with just 1 CB coming in and 1
promoted from the youth team.
That would give us Papa, Rob, Mavro,
a new preferably experienced CB,
and say Medley as our 5 CBs for the
squad.
On Xhaka, I’d love an upgrade but
prefer the Guv’s idea of AMN to
Aaron. It must happen soon IMO
but for this particular game Xhaka
is the least risky option if we go back
to a back 4 as I hope.
GH,
@46 last drinks.
Thanks, very clear.
I can easily imagine Per likes
basketball – small pitch, easy to
score 🙂
And lots of tall people, OM
Morning all.
Nice preview H. Your headline sums the day up perfectly. It’s definitely a must not lose game. We will certainly need to be sharper in all areas than we have been of late to claim all 3 points. We will also need to play our best side. That I would suggest has to include both Torreira and Özil.
Loved the pics from the training ground. It looked a great day out.
A rare visit for me today so hoping to catch up with a few in the Tolly. I may not make pre match but will definitely be there after.
3-1 to the mighty Gunners.
Off course tonight’s encounter is a must not loose game and I would give anything for a win and 3 points but most of all please Arsenal give us, the fans, a performance and some entertainment which has been in very short supply this season.
Hoping for the best but unless we mark Hazard out of the game and our two strikers find their shooting boots, we could all go home disappointed.
2-2 is my best guess.
The sky is blue, the sea is green – the weekend must be red.
2-0 if Laca, Auba and Torreira all start.
UTA.
Fine preview Guvna. Like you, I want us to revert to a back 4 but suspect UE sees things differently. Whoever we field I cannot see our defence keeping a clean sheet. AMN and Willock must be knocking on the door of what has been recently a dysfunctionla midfield. Love the metrognome who must return! Delia nails the defensive tactic – we must nail Hazard! Offensively, we must have creativity from either Mesut or Aaron to create the chances for LacaBam. And we must show the fiery spirit that knocked the Marshdwellers aside.
3-1 to the team in red, please.
A coupla quick questions for our Scottish football experts.
1.)Does Cowdenbeath have anything to do with cows?
2.)Why do them make them graze the football pitch before big matches?
https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/46926104
Great preview and report on your visit to the training ground, ‘holic. Couldn’t find the pics Steve T mentions but my visual capabilities seem to be diminishing. Everybody who is going, enjoy the game and bring us good luck. 🙂
Speroni with a howler, gives the lead to loserpool
Come oN!
Come on Arsenal!
Good, get the misses out of the way early on, come Auba
Xhaka being silly again did he put on some weight?
Auba should have buried that!
Lacaaaaaa
He just loves that tight tight corner
What a hit by Laca! Auba missed an easier one earlier.
Cracking finish from Laca after a very good variation set piece. We have started firmly on the front foot….
Front two are putting in a hell of a shift. We look a much better team with tempo, but we all know this..
Damn, would have been a cracker from Auba
That was an orange card from Luiz
Koscielny gets the second!!
Kos on the second try, gives them the shoulder ?
Are you particular how they come KS?
Fantastic first half from the team. It was vital to not concede when we were under the cosh at the end of the first half. Laca, Auba and Ramsey have been full of running and pressed Chelsea deep in their own half very well. Ramsey has been shadowing Jorginho brilliantly and that has resulted in their passing lines being choked off.
They will have to come at us in the second half – we have to be better on the counter attacks and they are there for the taking. Delighted for Koscielny’s goal…
Of course ksn ?
We need the 3rd goal, if we can get it we can rip them apart, we know how leaky we are otherwise
Great effort from our boys, I think everyone is putting in a shift, keep it up
Why sub Laca come Unai!
Takes off our two best players on the night. WTF?
Bollocks Bellerin is injured, looks like knee shot!
Bad news about Bellerin. Unlucky. Hope he is not away for a long time.
NOOOOOO!
Odoi is coming on and can cause us problems with his pace. He is a good crosser and with Giroud can be a threat.
We are becoming too defensive. Must have some attacking threat to avoid a Chelsea siege of our final third.
Somebody give Torreira an Oscar ?
Nice break up
That is a real bastard about
Hector. But let’s take the points
Alonso is a cunt
Hope he gets a ban for the slap on AMN
A long 6 minutes
Awesome display
1st half win ✓
3 points ✓
Clean sheet ✓
It’s gonna be a nice week
Clean sheet!!!! More important three points. Well done guys.
Resilient today which is not often a
charge levelled against us 🙂
Gotta be happy with that – big game
and home win.
2-0. Noosa knows.
Put in a shift and you get a result.
Chalk and cheese with the West Ham game.
Cynic my man @ # 10. “Glorified netball” Really? Try watching it and understand the rules. You might enjoy it.
Here across the pond, sports popularity & riches, goes in this descending order:
American Football
Basketball
Baseball
Ice Hockey/Soccer
Golf maybe
Boxing maybe
On average basketball players are the highest paid here.
http://www.espn.com/nba/salaries
Wish today’s team had played against West Ham last week.
Good team performance & entertaining.
Just neat picking – So Unai could not bring in Ozil, instead of Elneny?
That second half was enjoyable to watch because we defended so resolutely and didn’t concede any clear cut chances or ‘big chances’ as the stats guys call them. We let Chelsea have the ball and defended with good positional discipline in the second half after a first half where we played on the front foot and pressed Chelsea high up the pitch. It was delightful to see the team show both sides of the play in the game and claim a great clean sheet against a direct top four rival. The defensive discipline in the second half and the manner in which we kept Hazard quiet should give the team more confidence in upcoming games. Koscielny and Sokratis could be a good partnership but Kos’ fitness would determine if they can be played regularly when the games come thick and fast. Koscielny was immense today and totally deserved the man of the match award. His goal was a delightful moment and he deserved it after his bad luck with the injury late last season. And speaking of injuries, one just hopes that Bellerin’s doesn’t turn out to be a bad one because he is absolutely vital to this team.
Also Ramsey’s performance and that energetic front three of Auba, Laca and Rambo made me think if Emery has been making a mistake in not starting Ramsey regularly. We certainly didn’t miss Ozil today but Ozil could be very important against teams who sit back and defend rather than teams like Chelsea who will take the game to us and therby have some spaces left behind to attack.
The win means that the top four race is well and truly alive and might go right down to the wire. Chelsea don’t look the most consistent and Man Utd will have a wobble once they lose or draw after this run of theirs. Even the tiny tots could find it hard in the absence of Kane and Son in the next few games and might drop points. It will be fascinating to see twists and turns to follow in the race for top four.
Fantastic win today, makes the weekend and next week cheerful indeed…
bt8b@21. Cowdenbeath’s ground is Central Park, which as any fule kno is in New York. Central Park used to have a Dairy (still has the building; it is now used for the Visitors Centre). That must be the connection to cows.
Cowdenbeath are also known as the Blue Brazil, are they not? The Portuguese for cow is vaca. Does that help? I feared not.
dg@56: There is a reason that Juventus is going to be paying Ramsey reportedly £300,000 a week next season.
I have returned from a happy home of Football and thoroughly enjoyed the game . Good prediction Noosa!
It hasn’t always been clear what Emeryball actually is but I think we might have seen it today just as we did against Liverpool and Tottenham
We worked very hard, Desi summed it up very well in his analysis. There were a few worries. Hector has a very serious knee injury there having looked excellent today and Torreira is knackered. He struggled with cramp today.
I thought Sokratis and Koscielny were the best central defensive partnership we have had and despite the possession I can’t remember Leno making a proper save all night.
Lacazette was brilliant and makes Auba a better player when he is on. Guendouzi and Kolasinac were very hard working and my admiration for Ramsey’s attitude in the circumstances knows no bounds. He ran his legs off
Lovely reception for Giroud too. Nice to see
On the train home. A great 3 points I must say.
TTG@59. Absolutely everything we have just discussed and agreed upon in the pub. Spot on
Emery on Hector’s knee: It is his knee and the first prediction maybe can be an important injury. Tomorrow we will speak with the doctor. I hope not, but it is not very positive, our first impression. Nothing much lost in translation there. It sounds bad.
Ned
My sense from the care afforded by the medical staff and what I saw later on TV is that it is a cruciate. I do hope I am wrong
Well that was certainly fun, Chelsea were lucky to get 0 and we could/should have had a hatful by halftime. Shame for Héctor as he’s been on it this season, But as one door closes and all that – Had my first little one last Saturday so a beating by West Ham was not what the doctor ordered on her Birthday (How to explain that in years to come ;)) but the world was put right watching us give Chelsea the runaround with her in my arms today. She’s not a bad luck charm after all 🙂
Up The Arse!
Great effort by the whole team. Why can’t we play like that away? A couple of observations:
– At 33 and coming back after a potentially career ending injury, Kos is still our best defender, which says something about Kos and the other defenders.
– I agree with TTG re: Bellerin on the injury and I suspect he will out for a long time. While he is out, please play AMN over Lichsteiner. I thought AMN was excellent when he shifted over to RB, especially with his defending.
– Did anyone else notice how narrow our back 4 played in the first 60 minutes or so? It allowed their wingers plenty of time and space to put crosses into the box. Was this on purpose with the assumption that Papa and Kos will win balls in the air in the absence of a target man?
– I know he divides opinions, but I think letting Ramsey go is a huge mistake. His energy and pressing made a huge difference in disrupting their flow. We don’t have anyone else in a forward position who does that, except for possibly Laca.
Anyway, a great a win and hopefully this is the start of a long winning streak!
Chippy@63: Congratulations. Hope the three of you are doing well. Make sure she grows up the right shade of red.
Well, that was a much needed win!
It was even better given the shite spouted by pundits before the game. The only same one being an ex Liverpool player, Carragher.
This is Emerys 1st season and he has got a huge job on his hands, undoing a lot of stuff he inherited, as well as working within the clubs self imposed financial limitatiins. I cannot believe Emery has been getting so much stick?
Of course allowing Ramsey to run down his contract seems bizarre, especially when we’ve got Ozil on the bench. I don’t get it? But maybe his injury record has influenced the decision (still a bit similar to Mesut!) Who knows? It’s crap and if for no other reason, it would have been positive PR to have him signed up.
Anyway, a brilliant team performance sets us up nicely. Would be nice if the injuries would effin stop! Seems that Wenger used to get blamed for them AND being parsimonious in the transfer windows…
Shock horror! You mean, it’s not all down to the ex boss???
I know he divides opinions, but I think letting Ramsey go is a huge mistake.
He divides mine. I think he is a show pony, only interested in impressing people, and himself, by over complicating his game BUT, I also think that when he concentrates on just playing his natural game and keeps it simple, he’s a very good player.
I wish we’d offer Ozil to Juve on a free and give Ramsey an offer sufficient for him to stay, even at this late stage.
Not going to happen, I know, but Ozil offers us absolutely nothing. At least if we charged him for his seat on the bench we could add one on the spectator figures. Then he’d be useful.
We could get Ozil to work in hospitality or sumfin?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
cynic@67: My 2-cents on Ramsey is that his best position is the attacking midfielder role he plays for Wales in their 4-4-2. Arsenal has never consistently used him like that. Wenger had him playing wide or deep in a 4-2-3-1 and Emery prefers a classic no 10 to a Ramseyesque no 8.
Wales also decided that Ramsey is their main playmaker and built its midfield around him. That, perhaps inevitably, isn’t how it has worked at Arsenal. Even disregarding the injury disruption, having been shifted around the midfield all his career, Ramsey has never quite found a place to settle. He is thus not the nailed-on starter that all his undoubted talent suggest he should have become.
At 28, time is running out for him to continue as a bit-part player. A move is probably right for both sides, even if financial circumstances are forcing the club’s hand (the price of not having CL football, underlining the value of Wenger having delivered two decades of it).
I assume that Juventus will not be paying him a reported £300,000 a week to warm the bench in Turin despite having a talented quartet of central midfielders in Pjanic, Bentacur, Matuidi and Khedira. But the last two are getting a bit long in the tooth now. Matuidi will be 33 and out of contract at the end of next season and Khedira, who is the same age as Matuidi, the one after that. One or both may be moved along.
Allegri is also adept at tactically making the most of his players. He has changed the way Juve play this season to take advantage of Cristiano Ronaldo’s arrival. Ramsey will probably thrive in that environment.